Cryonics
Links to other information.
- Being alive and healthy is fun, and definitely beats the alternative.
- Today's medical technology can't always keep us alive,
let alone healthy.
- A future medical technology based on
a mature nanotechnology
should be able to preserve life and restore health
in all but the most extreme circumstances.
- Tissue preserved at the temperature of liquid nitrogen
does not deteriorate, even after centuries of storage.
- If current medical technology can't keep us alive
we can instead choose to be frozen, with
the expectation that future medical technology should
be able to both
reverse the freezing injury and restore good health.
A common misconception is
that cryonics freezes the dead. As the definition
of "death" is "a permanent cessation of all vital functions"
the future ability to revive a patient frozen with
today's technology implies the patient
wasn't dead.
Cryonics is actually based on the more plausible idea that
present medical practice has perhaps erred
in declaring a patient "dead." A second opinion from
a future physician -- one with access to a
fundamentally better
medical technology based on a mature nanotechnology -- lets us
avoid the unpleasant risk that we might
bury someone alive.
Evaluating cryonics
The major reason that cryonics is not more favorably viewed in the
medical community is relatively easy to explain. Medicine relies
on clinical trials. Put more simply, if someone proposes a technique
for saving lives, the response is "Try it and see if it works."
Methods that have not been verified by clinical trials are called
"experimental," while methods that have been tried and failed are
rejected.
In keeping with this tradition, we would like to conduct
clinical trials of the effectiveness of cryonic suspension
to determine whether it does (or does not) work.
The appropriate trials can be easily described. Cryonics proposes to
freeze people with today's technology in the expectation that
medical technology of (say) the year 2100 will be able to cure them.
Thus, the appropriate clinical trials would be to:
- Select N subjects.
- Freeze them.
- Wait 100 years.
- See if the technology of 2100 can indeed revive them.
The reader might notice a problem: what do we tell the terminally
ill patient prior to completion of the trials?
While this problem is not entirely unique to cryonics (the plight of
a dying patient who wishes to know whether or not to take a new experimental
treatment is well known), cryonics poses it in a qualitatively more
severe fashion: we must wait longer to determine the outcome and we
have no preliminary results to provide a clue about what that outcome
might be. If a new treatment is being tested we normally have
the results of animal trials and perhaps some preliminary results from
human patients. Further, we expect to get reliable results within
a small number of years.
In the case of cryonics, we are quite literally
awaiting the development of an entirely new medical technology. Preliminary
results, even on experimental animals, are simply not available; and
the final results won't be available for at least several decades.
Thus, while we can begin the clinical trials required to
evaluate cryonics today, clinical trials cannot
provide a timely answer about the effectiveness of cryonics.
It is not
possible (utilizing the paradigm
of clinical trials) to draw conclusions today about whether
physicians tomorrow will (or will not) be able to
revive someone who was cryonically suspended using today's
technology.
Does cryonics work?
The correct scientific answer to
the question "Does cryonics work?" is: "The clinical trials
are in progress. Come back in a century and we'll give you
a reliable answer."
The relevant question for those of us who don't
expect to survive that long is: "Would I rather be in the control group, or
the experimental group?" We are forced by circumstances to
answer that question without
the benefit of knowing the results of the clinical trials.
In order to show that cryonics will not work
(or even to show that it's unlikely to work)
it is necessary to
show that no future
technology, no matter how advanced,
will ever be able to revive the suspended patient.
When we consider what is routine today and how it might have been
viewed in (say) the 1700's,
we can begin to see how difficult it is to make
a well founded argument that future medical technology will never
be able to reverse the injuries that occur during cryonic suspension.
Is the treatment worse than the disease?
Finally, there is the risk that a proposed treatment might be worse
than the disease (which creates a strong prejudice against the use of
experimental
treatments on human beings). Current laws require that cryonic suspension
begin after "legal death" (which should be distinguished
both from death by current medical criteria and death by the
medical criteria of (say) the year 2100).
This presumably implies a rather small risk.
Even with complete patient autonomy (as could happen in the future)
cryonics will only be used when the patient is terminal and has little
remaining life, either in quantity or quality. There is little
need, in the case of cryonics, to fear that the cure will be worse
than the disease.
What to do
|
It works |
It doesn't work |
Sign up |
Live |
Die, lose life insurance |
Do nothing |
Die |
Die |
How might we evaluate cryonics? Broadly speaking, there are
two available courses of action: (1) sign up or (2) do nothing.
And there are two possible outcomes: (1) it works or (2) it doesn't.
This leads to the payoff matrix to the right.
In using such a payoff matrix to evaluate the possible outcomes,
we must decide what value the different outcomes have.
What value do we place on a long and healthy life? (It is
important to realize that the kinds of medical technology required
to reverse freezing injury will almost certainly be able to
restore good health for an extended period). What (presumably
negative) value do we place on being dead? And finally, in
the absence of direct experimental results in one direction or the
other, what estimate do we make of the chances that it will work?
While different people will answer these questions in different
ways, this provides a useful framework in which to consider the problem.
Present successes
It is worth pointing out that a fairly wide range of simple
tissue types have been successfully frozen and thawed, including
very early human embryos, sperm, skin, bone, red and white blood cells, bone
marrow, and others. The use of glycerol (anti-freeze, see
molecular structure at left) greatly reduces freezing damage.
Summary
Cryonics proposes to use an experimental treatment on human
patients with no expectation that clinical trials will be completed
anytime in the near future. This has created some controversy.
Despite this, cryonic suspension is the medically conservative
course of action (in the best sense of the word "conservative.")
Conventional medical criteria pronounce the suspended patient "dead."
These criteria are disputed by those who support cryonics,
who argue that (at the very least) this diagnosis might be in
error. If there is a debate about whether or not a patient is
dead it would seem inappropriate to resolve the dispute by placing
the patient in a furnace, particularly if this course of action is
against the wishes of the patient.
If we wish to gain some insight today about the chance that cryonics
will or will not work we must consider
(a) the kinds of damage that are likely to occur during suspension and
(b) the kinds of damage that future medical technologies might
reasonably be able to repair.
Those interested in pursuing this subject can read
The Molecular Repair of the Brain.
Those interested in joining the experimental group can contact:
No action is needed to join the control group.
(Quite a few people well known in the fields of
computer science, software development,
and other high tech areas
have joined the experimental group.
"... we've discovered a new Silicon Valley trend." Dan
Gillmor, Mercury News Technology Columnist, July 19 1998.
See also).
The cryonet home page
has links to other information.
Chapter 9 of Engines of Creation discusses biostasis and cryonics.
The
molecular repair of the brain discusses the technical issues
surrounding the feasibility of cryonics.
The Prospect of
Immortality (1965) by Robert C. W. Ettinger, is now available on the web.
This book started the cryonics movement.
Jim Halperin's 1998 novel,
The First Immortal,
is a well researched and entertaining introduction to the subject.
Cryonics,
cryptography, and maximum likelihood estimation discusses the
surprisingly close relationship between cryptanalysis of World War
II rotor machines and the problem of inferring neuronal wiring
given partial information.
A page on
Nanotechnology and Medicine discusses some of the improvements in
medicine that should be feasible with a mature nanotechnology.
The growing movement for increasing autonomy and control by
the terminally ill patient will likely improve the conditions
under which cryonic suspensions can be performed.
The
Oregon Death With Dignity Act is one manifestation of this movement.